Inflation

Recently, major stock indices around the world are high and higher. Of course, the up and down of the index have their own reason. I do not want, nor will, nor to speculate on this. Here, I just want to share ideas for the relation of inflation, index and the gap between rich and poor.

Theoretically, the index is ultimately reflected in the company's accumulated profits. Certainly, the deviation is because of expectation of people’s optimistic or pessimistic. The company's earnings growth rate, in theory, is equal to the country's growth rate of GDP, but the high or low growth rate is related to the nature of industry or the  company itself.

Assuming the average is 4 percent of the country's inflation and GDP growth. So in fact, the purchasing power of the people of the country is almost unchanged. So if we count the effect of inflation in the index. I think the index will cut down to half of his existing value. Why is there growth? Because of the index contains a part of the largest company with competitive advantage. Their ROE is often higher than the sum of GDP and inflation. If in the past two decades, we have no sit on the train of such companies, we must have been sitting on the purchasing power of people in this train significantly behind. As the gap has expanded, although now we are sitting on the same train, in the next two decades, the distance between rich and poor will only become more exaggerated amplification.

With the growth of GDP, the country richer, but money does not fall evenly into capita’s pocket. Widen the gap between rich and poor, and ultimately what will be happened, or is there any way to solve it? Leaving some rooms for your thinking, I hope to have time to share my view about foresaid topics in near future.

近期各地主要股票指數都在高位，美股更創新高。固然，指數升跌自有各樣原因影響，我也不想、亦不會、亦不能對此作出推測。在此，我只想分享一下對於通漲、指數、貧富差距相互關係的想法。

理論上，指數最終是反映公司的盈利累積，而有偏差是因為人們對它的預期是樂觀還是悲觀。而公司的盈利增幅，理論上也是該國GDP的增幅，只是公司質數及行業令增幅有高有低。

假設該國平均的通漲及GDP增長都是4%。那麼該國人民的購買力其實差不多是不變的。所以若張現在的指數扣除通漲後，可能只剩下現有的一半。為什麼還有增長呢? 因為指數是包含某一部份市值最大，最有相對競爭優勢的公司在裡面。它們的ROE往往比GDP及通漲相加還高。若在過去的二十年，我們沒有坐上這類公司的列車上，我們的購買力一定被坐上這班列車的人大幅拋離。由於差距已經擴大，儘管現在我們都坐在同一列車上，在下一個二十年，貧富的距離只會更誇張的放大。

隨著GDP的增長，國家更富裕，但錢不會平均地落到每位國民的袋裡。貧富差距的擴大，最終有什麼結果、又或是有什麼方法自己去解決? 就留待大家思考一下。希望之後有時間針對以上問題再在此分享吧。