Arbitrage

There are many arbitrage opportunities in the market, such as borrow low interest rates currency to park in high interest rate currency. Plus a derivatives to reduce the risk of exchange rate, is basically arbitrage opportunity in the absence of systemic risk to obtain returns within a known period of time. Of course, the premise is you are familiar with the risks there.

In the stock market, one of the arbitrage is the disclosure of a company acquired by other company. Then the purchase price is higher than the market price, of course, after the news disclosed, the market price must be shooting up near to the purchase price. But we need is certain little return than greater return but uncertain.

Three key points must be considered at this moment.

1. is the acquiree’s major shareholder wants to sell their company too;

2. Whether the acquirer has enough financial resources to acquire;

3 time of the deal completed

To be considered, of course, the chances of success and the time to complete the transaction for the above points:

1 This is relatively easy to find, the main shareholder in the market are generally easy to find information on, but also pay attention to whether there is any dealing history for sales before.

2 It is well-known companies, the financial resources of the acquirer are strong, the intention is very clear. Of course not borrow to acquire enhance the chance of success.

3 Finally, time is the most important factor to consider, assume the gap between the market and purchase price is 5%, if six months to complete the transaction, then there is 10% annual return, However, if they use two years to complete, then only 2.5% annual return is.

Other factors include whether the violation of antitrust laws, whether there are other stakeholder can affect the deal etc. Must also consider it!

So I still prefer to buy undervalue stocks for long term investment, unless there are many money on hand but do not have an ideal investment opportunity.

市場上有很arbitrage的機會，例如借入低息的貨幣買入高息的貨幣。加上一份衍生工具來減低匯率的風險，苦賺取的利息大於以上的成本，基本上是一個在沒有系統性風險而在一個已知的時間內得到回報的arbitrage機會。當然大前提是妳熟悉風險在那裡。

在股票市場，其中一個arbitrage是在一間公司被收購的消息被肯定後其收購價與現價之間的差額，當然這之中牽涉三個重點，1.被收購公司的主要股權都由想放售的股東持有；2.收購方是否有足夠的財力去收購；3. 時間

要考慮的當然是成功的機率及交易完成時間， 針對以上各點：

1. 這個相對容易找出，主要股東一般都容易在市場資訊上找到，也可留意之前有否出售洽談的記錄。

2. 一些大型有名的企業，收購的實力都很強，意向也很清晰。當然不用借款來收購更加大了成功的機會率。

3. 最後，時間是最重要的考慮因素，一個差額3%的回報，若是半年完成交易，那麼年回報就有6%了，但若果要用兩年才完成，年回報便只剩1.5%了。

其他的因素包括是否違反壟斷法，有否其他STAKEHOLDER可以影響交易等等! 也必須考慮呢!

所以我還是偏好買入undervalue 股票作長線投資，除非手持大量現金而又沒有理想的投資機會才會考慮吧!